Goldman Sachs Group JPMorgan Chase
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 5:52 am
1. December non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and major Wall Street banks cut their bets on rate cuts
1. Wells Fargo: The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March is becoming increasingly small.
2. Citigroup: The Federal Reserve is expected to make the next interest rate cut in May, compared with the previous expectation of January.
3. Given the latest (strong) non-farm payrolls data, the Fed is expected to make its next rate cut in June, compared with the previous forecast of March.
4. Bank of America: The rate cut cycle may have ended; the basic assumption is that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for a long time, but the risk of the next move tends to be a rate hike.
5. Reduced the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year from 75 basis points to 50 basis points; it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and December respectively.
6. Morgan Stanley: The non-farm report should reduce rich people data the possibility of a near-term Fed rate cut; due to a more favorable inflation outlook, the possibility of a rate cut in March remains high.
Highlights of the non-farm report: unexpectedly high employment, and expectations for rate cuts this year have dropped sharply
1. December employment data: In December, non-agricultural employment increased by 256,000, significantly higher than expected, reaching a new high since March 2024. The data for October and November were revised down by a total of 8,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November.
2. 2024 full-year data: The number of employed people in 2024 will increase by 2.2 million, the smallest full-year increase since 2020, indicating a slowdown in employment growth compared with the strong rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. Newly added areas: Health care and social assistance, retail trade, and leisure and hotel industries saw the largest number of new jobs. Government employment also rose. The manufacturing sector shed jobs for the fourth time in five months, bringing the total number of job losses in 2024 to 87,000.
1. Wells Fargo: The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March is becoming increasingly small.
2. Citigroup: The Federal Reserve is expected to make the next interest rate cut in May, compared with the previous expectation of January.
3. Given the latest (strong) non-farm payrolls data, the Fed is expected to make its next rate cut in June, compared with the previous forecast of March.
4. Bank of America: The rate cut cycle may have ended; the basic assumption is that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for a long time, but the risk of the next move tends to be a rate hike.
5. Reduced the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year from 75 basis points to 50 basis points; it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and December respectively.
6. Morgan Stanley: The non-farm report should reduce rich people data the possibility of a near-term Fed rate cut; due to a more favorable inflation outlook, the possibility of a rate cut in March remains high.
Highlights of the non-farm report: unexpectedly high employment, and expectations for rate cuts this year have dropped sharply
1. December employment data: In December, non-agricultural employment increased by 256,000, significantly higher than expected, reaching a new high since March 2024. The data for October and November were revised down by a total of 8,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November.
2. 2024 full-year data: The number of employed people in 2024 will increase by 2.2 million, the smallest full-year increase since 2020, indicating a slowdown in employment growth compared with the strong rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. Newly added areas: Health care and social assistance, retail trade, and leisure and hotel industries saw the largest number of new jobs. Government employment also rose. The manufacturing sector shed jobs for the fourth time in five months, bringing the total number of job losses in 2024 to 87,000.